No Contest

Zamboanga City Siege: As in many other conflicts, it is glaringly apparent that there is no quarrel between the soldiers on the government side and the fighters on the side of the Moro National Liberation Front - MNLF. As for the volunteer workers who are in the vicinity where the hostilities are, they do not have any ax to grind vs. either the government or MNLF.

Civilian government officials, particularly from the Office of the Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process - OPAPP, in particular Hon. Secretary Teresita "Qing" Deles, confessed over the national media that they invited Misuari Nur to the talks but he won't participate.

Hon. Secretary Deles however also said they regret having neglected the MNLF and not giving them enough importance. She and her subordinates at OPAPP did not know the full weight of not wholly involving Misuari, she said.

On the other hand, such oversight if committed without malice does not really matter. The Honorable Secretary already made it clear that Misuari did not show interest in participation.

Nevertheless, during the early stages of the effort to usher towards the emergence of a more enduring peace in the Islamic community in Mindanao, millions of dollars were spent in contracting out the task of studying the role of stakeholders in the issue of giving Islamic leaders the autonomy to govern themselves. A large number of scholarly and practical contracting institutions were given the job and all the required results were delivered to the United States Government through an informal working committee that was formed by the POTUS (US President) himself.

The United States Congress participated in deciding about the allocation and release of those funds. Fortunately, the Congress and the US Executive Branch may never have the same problem with the likes of Napoles and Mr. Zaldy Co nor their ilk.

Whatever transpired between the time around 2002-2003 to the present for all those studies funded by well-spent foreign currency to become null, moot and academic, no one will ever know.

Certainly, not all of the contractors must have recommended that the Government of the Philippines will drastically erase the country's collective memory of Misuari.

Select quarters opt for the resolution of the conflict in Western Mindanao using the military option. They defend the current policy of the incumbent administration to wage war and use force, albeit "greater force" against the MNLF.

However, the question remains whether the MNLF should effectively be considered the real enemy. After the 1996 Tripoli Agreement, a number of the conditions set forth in that peace pact, to the exclusion of only a number of provisions were implemented.  Among these, is the integration of MNLF regulars into the fold of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. Upon the enactment of the Philippine National Police law by Congress in 1992, some of the MNLF absorbed into the armed forces opted to transfer to the Police service.

During the past, on a large number of occasions, the demobilized MNLF members living peacefully as civilians still participated in operations for the benefit of the public peace at the behest of the Government of the Philippines. Much of these operations were directed against the Abu Sayyaf, a group that was born in 1994-1995 and initially operated in the Zamboanga Peninsula. Most of the Abu Sayyaf original members were Moro Islamic Liberation Front, ex-Communist Party of the Philippines cadres, with a smattering of rogue MNLF elements. More MNLF members would be drawn into the folds of Abu Sayyaf later, during the period in late 1998-1999 up to around 2000 and beyond.

When the MILF received, the support and backing of the United States Government to enter into peace negotiations with the Government of the Philippines, the new Islamic negotiating panel became the officials of the MILF.

Despite this development, the Organization for Islamic Cooperation – OIC, did not change its stand over who will be the permanent Philippine Muslim Representative to OIC. It will remain to be the MNLF, with Misuari personifying the organization.

The Honorable Secretary Deles confirmed that this is so and regrets having ignored Misuari over the past several years.

With the record of accomplishment of the MNLF in cooperating with government, it can hardly be said that they are the real enemies in the present state of affairs in Zamboanga.

If the MNLF were sincere in going to war vs. government, no less than several hundreds of government forces would have been dead by now. When the organization helped the AFP and PNP in Sultanate of Sulu and North Borneo during the rescue operations vs. Abu Sayyaf kidnappers of the staff of the International Committee of the Red Cross – ICRC, more or less two to three hundred Abu Sayyaf terrorists were killed because of the fierceness of the MNLF volunteers and the sincerity of the Philippine National Police in engaging the terrorist band in non-conventional battle.

In sum, whatever is now happening in Zamboanga City, only the native population will be the losers. Between the government forces and the MNLF, there is really no contest unless there are unseen hands moving pawns and officer pieces here and there in a cruel game of death and devastation.

Related articles:

Zamboanga City paralyzed by siege

500 Marines deployed to Zamboanga

Government's enemy body count: 100 MNLF killed or captured

Confusion in Mindanao

Despite the danger of escalating tensions towards full-scale war, certain shady individuals are goading both parties enmeshed in the hostilities and appear to be the ones who organized the hostage-taking as well as the burning of entire villages in Zamboanga.

Captured persons alleged to be members of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) confessed to interrogators that they were not ordered to participate in a war.

Before jumping off from Basilan into Zamboanga-bound bancas (small sea vessels commonly used by fishermen), they were told to support the prayer rally - educational assembly or teach-in against the pork barrel at the EDSA Shrine in Ortigas by holding a similar rally in Zamboanga City.

For the task, they were given an inordinate amount of cash and upon boarding the bancas, they were issued firearms one for each rallyist.

While en route to Zamboanga, over sea waters they were hailed and shot at by Philippine Navy elements and were forced to surrender. The story above they told their captors does not tally with the current tale that Commander Habier Malik mobilized them for all-out war or jihad against the infidel Philippine Government and their so-called sworn enemies - brother Muslims in the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.

A number of names of people heretofore unheard of recently in the media to be parties to the conflict came up during the interrogations. Leaders of the MNLF who received the same information from the supposed rallyists vs. pork barrel are now confused as to how the situation in Zamboanga came to be. And why they are at the receiving end of the blame, when it appears that the active involvement of certain persons without any relevant connection to MNLF and the Islamic cause, effectively plunged the forty year old Moro liberation movement into the quagmire.

The question now is that while there is battle raging in Zamboanga, two opposing parties are shooting each other to death, in the end who is going to benefit?

Furthermore, while the consensus among many quarters and the lament of the MNLF is to reach a peaceful accord with government, why did the occupant of the house by the Pasig River come over to Zamboanga and warned of the use of more force if the MNLF does not surrender and suffer the consequences of their supposed crimes?  What if the MNLF was simply trapped into filling a role that was painstakingly defined and tailored-fit for them for the aggrandizement of certain ambitious, devious persons?

The conclusion is much awaited.

If there must be peace

“If there is to be peace in the world,

There must be peace in the nations.

If there is to be peace in the nations,

There must be peace in the cities.

If there is to be peace in the cities,

There must be peace between neighbors.

If there is to be peace between neighbors,

There must be peace in the home.

If there is to be peace in the home,

There must be peace in the heart.”

― Lao Tzu

Increasing safe spaces

Gruesome murder of Ms. Kristelle Davantes Photo credit: GMA 7

The goal of community-based peace, security and safety should be precluded by a more aggressive law enforcement system.

Force impetus should be able to interdict perpetrators of crime similar to the case of the brutal killing of Ms. Kristelle Davantes. Click here for a brief bio of Kristelle at linkedin.

This site fully sympathizes with and supports the family of the late Ms. Kristelle Davantes, together with friends and colleagues who put up the Justice for Kae campaign.

The closure of the case for the peace of mind of those who loved Kristelle, fondly called Kae by those close to her is called for.

This dovetails with the earlier assertion that law enforcement should be more aggressive, more responsive to society and the host community that law enforcers are bound to serve.

Ms. Davantes' victimology profile fairly relatively fits that of a particular group or groups that prey upon helpless owners of vehicles that the group desires to possess. In many cases, the perpetrators receive an order for a particular year make, model and possibly color of a motor vehicle. The criminal elements will themselves scout for such a vehicle and in a number of cases, will utilize their contacts as scouts for the type of vehicle in question.

Once the closest match is found, the criminals will undertake all means to obtain the vehicle by illegal means and as an unfortunate resort, as in the case of Ms. Kristelle Davantes, by use of excessive force. In this case, the excesses led to the demise of such a promising, young and vibrant person as Ms. Kristelle Davantes.

In special cases such as the modus operandi used in obtaining the vehicle of Ms. Kristelle Davantes, the criminals should have been heavily influenced by prohibited substances or were experiencing the withdrawal effects of said substances, where intense paranoia and fear visits upon the substance abuser and is likely to commit acts that he or she may eventually not even fully remember in the future.

The public sector will rue the scorn of the affected publics and reap exhorbitantly expensive endless negative consequences unless it will pay the steep price to capture or wipe out the elements perpetrating this kind of crime. Email: workers@rebus21.shop.ms.

Articles on Kristelle Davantes:

Justice for Kae Video Credit: GMA 7

Why was Kae Davantes killed

Justice for Kae

True Price of Corruption

Fouth Generation (4G) Warfare Mindanao

Events in Western Mindanao at the present time all point towards escalating fourth generation war.

4G warfare is defined as early as in 1989 as amorphous (without shape and specific definition), stateless, borderless, non-conventional war. It is also timeless. For demonstration, the overly protracted conflict between Israel and selected Middle East neighbors have overblown into 4G warfare. However, its worst feature is that 4G warfare crosses all lines of demarcation:  it does not distinguish between soldier-combatants and civilians. This form of warfare shows its antagonists engage in all sorts of unimaginable acts and does not follow the Geneva Conventions on agreed upon humanitarian considerations during wartime.

Although some military historians and analysts refuse to accept the 4G warfare (as well as the much-propounded 5th Generation warfare - 5G) doctrine, arguing that both the 4G and 5G concepts of warfare are weak in that they are governed by their own aspects of conventionality it is still in order to recognize the burgeoning threat to life and property, to the economic well-being of a social enclave or a country of minor conflict rapidly escalating into bigger war.

In its most poignant manifestation as the burning of Islamic villages at the outset of the 1980s in Mindanao that led to the long-standing Muslim secessionist posture and the rise of highly non-conventional war in Western Mindanao that spilled over disproportionately to Central Mindanao after the late Salamat Hashim broke ties with Misuari Nur this kind of warfare tactic and strategy ravages everything in its path.

This is being repeated in a formerly Islamic trading capital town, Zamboanga City now populated also by a dominantly Christian population who learned to speak a language that is half Spanish and half vernacular dialect.

Failure in negotiations and lack of crisis scenario planning and management, futures modeling and war gaming exercise among many other significant and trivial factors, brought the present situation in Western Mindanao to what it is today.

It is now anticipated, that since half of the base of support of Misuari is in the Zamboanga Peninsula and Basilan and both enjoy proximity to Central Mindanao where a sizeable faction of the Salamat Hashim group are found, troubles will ultimately spill over to Central Mindanao.

It is merely a matter of time before the atrocities escalate into unmanageable proportions and spread over to other major islands in the northern part of the country.

Considering that coinciding with events in 1995, during the merging of Christian Democrats with Islamic political parties, Muslim communities sprang up like mushrooms all over the Philippine archipelago, the base of support for all secessionist leaning organizations formerly isolated in the South, has now expanded into staggering size.

This is a precursory requisite for borderless warfare that will no longer be confined merely to the South, unless mitigating circumstances will arise and relative peace once more will be enjoyed in larger parts of the country.

For the uninitiated government technocracy, peace could be merely wishful thinking at the present, but it is achievable. The best stopgap should lie in what was began by former Director of the National Security Council and erstwhile Adviser of the late President Corazon Cojuangco Aquino.

The Hon. Dr. Emmanuel Valdez Soriano, intimately close to and known by the current Secretary of National Defense, Gen. Voltaire Tuvera Gazmin while he was Group Commander of the Presidential Security Group at the time, thought about conflict in terms of macrocosmic models.

In several sessions with him at his non-descript office in Makati City, the former National Security Adviser repeatedly tasked the building of models for flashpoints monitoring. Other more strategic modeling were undertaken during his watch. This concept was introduced several times into the succeeding administrations to no avail even with Gen. Jose Tan Almonte and former President Fidel Valdez Ramos re-inventing the process with the creation of Tactical, Policy and Strategic commissions under the National Security Council and putting managers under these newly formed units. The novel offices however were limited to simple reading and proofreading of letters, studies, proposals instead of engaging in flashpoint monitoring, crisis mapping and futures modeling.

The present National Security Council cannot hold a candle to the old wise men who headed that office. From the top to bottom, they don't even know what story to believe and who to trust in. They cannot identify one solid fact to be true and lies are often taken as gospel truth. Furthermore, Dr. Emmanuel Valdez Soriano was not particular about personal wealth or expenditures, was hardly engaged in things that beclouded human judgment such as addiction to substances and other vices, which cannot be said of his present contemporaries.

The defense establishment is headed by a humble and modest former junior colleague of the doctor who declined the appointment to defense secretary several times stating his reason to be that there are more than 200 congressmen and there are 24 senators. In effect, as Secretary of National Defense, he will have 224 more bosses than His Excellency President Benigno Simeon Cojuangco Aquino III who is only one person, notwithstanding that His Excellency, The President will have several little presidents all over him, as well as close family, friends and what other.

Following the uncovering of the dirt and shit soiling the faces, shirts and undergarments of of our venerable 224 and top men and women of line agencies of the bureaucracy, Gen. Gazmin's humility and modesty befitting of a better man, is probably just in the right place.

The constitution of top leadership of the security cluster defines the present situation now unfolding in Western Mindanao. However, even if the correct solutions will be undertaken by a private-led initiative, no one can dare say that it will be against the grain. In most other advanced or backward states, the concerned citizens of nations always rise up to the challenge of contributing to their country during crisis. In case of what is happening now, this call is made to the private sector, the clergy, all the other sectors, to rise up and be counted. At no other time but in crisis and the fights of Emmanuel Pacquiao are people ready to agree, link hands and even work together. This is one of those times and everyone who wants to help must come out and lend a hand. Left ungoverned, the security cluster will commit one faux pas after another to ensure that the trouble in Mindanao will last for a minimum of another ten years such as during the time of Pres. Marcos.

This time, it will not merely be Malaysia just training the Misuari fighters and some Christian Social Democrats supposed warriors thrown into the picture (formerly courtesy of Sen. Jovito Salonga). With the Salamat Hashim and Indon relatives in high places, royalty and business elite, the support of Indonesia with possibly increased help of several Malaysian political factions, without discounting that of some of the Organization for Islamic Cooperation members for the Misuari group can push the current troubles into a full functional 4G level.

The answer to the troubles in Zamboanga lies in diplomacy and a political solution. The sustaining of the effort to increase safe spaces should be found in properly supported future modeling, crisis mapping, scenario building and counteraction-countermeasures planning, as well as a wide range of related activities along this line. This is where the rest of the country could pitch in to boost a sagging government conflict resolution strategy.

To make things lighter than they are now, the irony is that there are cellular mobile phones even His Excellency The President is using that are merely operating on 3G. How the hell really is government going to respond to 4G? Email: workers@rebus21.shop.ms.

Related articles:

Business Mirror: Increasing number of Zamboanga casualties

Bloomberg.com on spreading violence in Zamboanga

Xinhua.net warning about threat escalating

ANC: Analyst says government must listen to Misuari

Sunstar: Cebu raises alert level

Philippine Star: Government force augmentation - 500 Scout Rangers sent to Zamboanga

CNN early news on hostage taking in Zamboanga